19.10.2023 Storm force winds and extremely high sea levels.

 ~o~

 Thursday 19th. A grey day is promised with rain after lunch. Wind increasing with gusts to 20m/s. 44mph. Up to 26m/s in the next days.

 Up at 6.15 after getting up only twice in the night. The small cup of milk after dinner may be working. 

 I have a haircut appointment at 11.30. My beard needs a trim too. No walk. The trees are thrashing and it isn't warm.

 After my haircut I drove to my friend's place in the rain. We chatted technical stuff until his wife came home. 

 Whereupon I drove home and had an afternoon nap.

 After which I moved the outside thermometer sensor. So now I can monitor outside temperatures without having to go upstairs. The sensor itself is back under the northerly roof overhang but the lead rises from one of the lounge windows. The siting of the sensor should continue to minimise ambient heating affecting readings. Not remotely likely on a cold, windy day without a hint of sunshine. 43F at 17.30 = 6.1C.👍

  22.00 41F/5C. Dinner was chips, with fish fingers, tomatoes and peas. I should have bought more chips but forgot to. I am really trying to be self disciplined and had only a small cup of milk to follow. My last cup of tea was at 17.15.

 The stove has been burning since 17.00. With only one log at a time. This has only raised the temperature in the living room from 62 to 65F. [17-18C.] All the internal doors and all the windows are tightly shut. I have the oil filled radiators going in the kitchen and bathroom. Not to heat them but just to keep the chill off. The fridge doesn't like being in an unheated room and becomes unreliable.

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 A "once in a century" flood warning is in force for parts of Southern Denmark. This is due to strong winds piling up the sea in the narrow strait between Fyn and Jylland. Also right across southern Fyn and southern and eastern Sjæland coastlines. The expected sea levels are also unprecedented [by a whopping 60cm!] in 100 year, computer forecasting models.

 Over two meters above normal is possible on south eastern, Jylland coastlines. Meteorologists are looking back to 1903 as the last example of such raised sea levels. There was considerable loss of life on Langeland and Lolland further east. Both of which were badly flooded.

 Aabenraa and Assens are both coastal towns closest to the highest expected sea levels. The sea levels are already 40cm above normal. The massive shift to continuous, storm force, easterly winds is expected to lead to severe coastal flooding later on Friday through to Saturday morning. 

 The high water warning is extended up the eastern coast of Sjæland almost as far as Copenhagen. Being sited on exposed coasts, many summer houses are at greater risk of flooding. There is usually no insurance cover for flood damage.

 The risk of coastal flooding is frequently mentioned as a result of global warming. As ice sheets and glaciers melt at an increasingly alarming and accelerating rate. Sea level rise will only add to weather induced flood risks. Affecting the majority of coastal cities and capitals around the world. Many of which were sited around a harbour or estuary for historical reasons of trade. 

 The cost of future flooding could well be astronomical. With many businesses having head offices in prestigious but costly buildings. Which may become completely cut off from normal road transport. By quite modest rises in average sea levels. Do they all move to higher ground? Forcing massive land value inflation and speculation? As capital city, land values sink beneath the waves?

 If Antarctica should melt entirely, then Denmark would simply cease to exist. It would be entirely underwater with a modest 60 meter sea level rise. The map of the rest of northern Europe and the Baltics would change beyond imagination. The Netherlands would be gone too. 

 Update:  The weather and flood risk situation is being constantly updated. Storm force, easterly winds are now expected across the whole of Denmark. Peaking from 3am on Friday to Saturday mid day. 

 With potential sea levels now being predicted up to 2.4m [8'] above normal on the coast of south east Jylland and SW Fyn. Wave heights to 6m, or above, are likely in some places. Though not expected to be so high in the easterly highest water regions. The greatest danger is predicted to be later on Friday 20th and overnight to Saturday 21st of October. Wind gusts peaking at 26m/s at midnight Friday 20th.

 The emergency services are recommending evacuation from affected, low lying areas. To avoid unnecessary loss of life. Or the demand for rescue under extremely dangerous sea and hazardous weather conditions. Normal vehicular access is highly unlikely. There may be deeper and unexpected flooding in your planned escape path.  The authorities warn against storm tourism. There may be drain covers forced up by pressure from below. Which would be invisible beneath the murky waters.

The official advice is to leave affected areas by Friday morning at the latest. Water filled tubes are being set up to reduce the impact of likely flooding. 24 hours before the culmination the sea level is already well over a meter higher than normal. 

 There is expected to be between 30mm and 50mm of rain falling over Friday and Saturday. I found a new flooding risk map. KAMP. Which shows that even prior to the earthworks, to my north, there was a high risk of flooding after heavy rain. The earthworks form a high dam. Which will channel water outside my northern boundary from the hill to my east. Into a collection space probably less than 1/4 of that area before the earthworks. Will a 40cm pipe be enough to lead the water away? Not even before the dam was built according to the new map! It never rains but it pours!

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 Google Blogger is still blocking image uploads from Firefox. Effortless uploading in Google Chrome. Which, by coincidence, is releasing a facelift. Meanwhile MS is updating Outlook and making life so difficult that I may never glance at it ever again.

~o~