4.09.2020 Where do I queue for my cheap Tesla?

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Friday 4th  58F, potentially bright mixture of blue sky and cloud. The promised rain seems to have been cancelled. A long walk along the marsh up to the forest and then back along the main track back to the village. The ducks retreated to the far size of the marsh pond as usual. I took a snap as a flock of starlings left a tree.

 

Denmark is seriously considering subsidising electric car buyers to the tune of £10k equivalent. There is a desperate shortage of battery cars on Danish roads. However there are huge hurdles to burning so much tax-payer's money. Not least the Swedish experience. Where buyers were subsidized and then sold their cheap cars at higher prices to the Norwegians. 

Then there is the loss of huge sums as fuel tax drops dramatically with electric car uptake. One interesting suggestion is to subsidize business fleets to go battery. Since these vehicles are traditionally sold again within two years it provides for some serious "trickle down" to less affluent buyers.

One problem with that idea is that electric vehicles may not quickly "fall to pieces" like IC cars. What if EVs are kept in the fleet for far longer? They will never reach the secondhand car market. Rarity of EVs might make them too expensive for many used car buyers anyway. What if they can't sell their existing IC vehicle to fund the purchase of a used EV? Charging drivers per mile instead of taxing vehicle value holds some promise. 

 

Car dealers and manufacturers face serious problems in maintaining their business model. Expensive spares and high repair charges, from new, are a major source of income for existing IC vehicles. As the proportion of IC cars drops, in favour of EVs, then a big chunk of change just vanishes. 

Charging networks still need to be built. Pointless until now with so few EVs on Danish roads. My idea of standard quick-change replacement battery packs available at former petrol stations is a non-starter. Every vehicle is built differently. Every manufacture has a range of batteries. Sliding a fully charged battery cassette, into a standard slot in the car floor, is not going anywhere yet. 

 

Meanwhile, IC car manufacturers are in serious trouble. Slow to adopt and develop their new EVs. Then overpricing their half-finished tat is giving Tesla a serious boost with every new vehicle it builds. Its huge new factories are being established in Europe and China. While traditional IC car factories are closing. How soon will there be an "affordable" Tesla? Not long now. IC industry RIP.

Now short term use, EV Robo-Taxies are waiting in the wings. What if nobody ever needs a private car once they all become fully self-driving? How will that affect insurance companies if nobody dies in RTAs? What about the small maintenance garages? How are the petrol stations and oil companies going to survive?

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